What’s on the Horizon for 2022?

With the first quarter of 2022 behind us, we decided to take an even more micro look at the Hot 100 Top 10 to see what might be on the horizon for 2022’s most successful songs at the compositional level. To do this, we focused on Q1 2022’s new arrivals (i.e. those that entered into the Top 10 for the first time during the quarter) and compared them to the songs that carried over from Q4 2021.

One of the most marked differences was in primary genres. Songs that carried over into this year’s first quarter were more pop-heavy, with 75% pop, 13% hip hop/rap, and 13% R&B/soul. On the other hand, Q1 2022’s new arrivals had a decidedly more diverse array of primary genres, with 33% hip hop/rap, 22% pop, 22% rock, 11% dance/club/electronic, and 11% Latin. This marked the highest level in four or more quarters for rock, dance/club/electronic, and Latin, as well as the lowest level in four or more quarters for R&B/soul, with zero new arrivals.

The quarter’s wide genre spread is thanks in part to the Dua Lipa and Elton John collaboration with Australian dance music trio PNAU, Cold Heart (PNAU Remix), as well as Lin-Manuel Miranda’s record-setting #1 hit from Disney’s Encanto, We Don’t Talk About Bruno, providing the dance/club/electronic and Latin genres with some representation, respectively. Additionally, hip hop held the most new arrivals in Q1, thanks to Do We Have A Problem?, Pushin P, and Super Gremlin, joining the quarter’s lone hip hop carryover song, Lil Nas X and Jack Harlow’s Industry Baby.

Another key difference between the quarter’s new arrivals and carryover songs lies in the gender of the lead vocalist. While male led vocals remained the most popular, the margin shifted significantly, from 75% of carryover songs down to 44% of new arrivals. The drop in new arrival male-led vocals was countered by a rise in male/female vocals (33%), thanks to Cold Heart (PNAU Remix), Do We Have A Problem, and We Don’t Talk About Bruno. Female led songs remained fairly consistent at around a quarter of songs.

Prominent instruments also saw a few standout shifts; particularly of note are the use of string sections, up from 13% of carryovers to 67% of new arrivals; and acoustic piano, up from 25% of carryovers to 56% of new arrivals. The use of string sections in new arrivals also largely defied genre, with Surface Pressure and Ghost in pop, Super Gremlin and Pushin P in hip hop, and Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) and We Don’t Talk About Bruno representing dance/club/electronic and Latin, respectively. The lone carryover song featuring a string section was Ed Sheeran’s Shivers.

Average tempo slowed significantly, from 113 BPM in the carryover category, down to 90 BPM in new arrivals. This shift is largely due to the two atypically fast-tempo songs carrying over from 2021, with The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber’s Stay clocking in at 170 BPM, and Lil Nas X’s That’s What I Want at 176 BPM.

Average song length also saw a notable decrease, from 3:17 in carryovers to an even three minutes in new arrivals, with no new arrivals clocking in past the 3:00-3:29 song length range.

Regarding song structure, there were several key differences between new arrivals and carryover songs. The use of a pre-chorus was halved, from 50% in carryovers to 22% in new arrivals, due in part to the increased prominence of hip hop where pre-choruses are far less common than in other genres. The use of a “D” (departure) section similarly was halved, down from 100% of carryovers to 56% in new arrivals.

Below is a Spotify playlist with the songs referenced in this article: